Xbox 360 To Be Next Gen Winner Says Merrill Lynch

Vikingod · Nov 17, 2006, 10:07 PM

Source: DailyTech
__________
Although most analysts have said that the PlayStation 3 would maintain Sony's lead in the console market in the coming years, an analyst for Merrill Lynch is bucking the trend and is giving a nod to the Xbox 360. Sony has held the lead in the console wars with the original PlayStation and PlayStation 2, so what would prevent the PlayStation 3 from carrying the crown this go around?

There is no doubt that the PlayStation 3 will face formidable competition from its cheaper Xbox 360 and Wii rivals, but Merrill Lynch's Yoshiyuki Kinoshita says that it goes much further than a low price tag. "The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world's biggest market," said Kinoshita.

TheBlackCat · Nov 18, 2006, 06:52 PM

Oh come on. I was going to let this one slide because everybody already knows my position on these sorts of predictions. But the problem this time isn't specifically about predicting console sales. Anybody claiming to be able to predict anything to the single percentage point 4 years in the future is obviously full of it.

"We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 (March 2011) of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent"

There is no way they can possibly have that sort of precision. That is the problem with business and political figures like this. They give you the numbers, but very seldom tell you the range of error. Or if the error range is mentioned it is a footnote at the very end of the article. It makes the data absolutely useless, you need to know the degree of uncertainty with something to know how much you can trust the data.

brutusmaximus · Nov 18, 2006, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBlackCat

Oh come on. I was going to let this one slide because everybody already knows my position on these sorts of predictions.

Yes, and we also know that you, bobbytomorrow, and yahitsandrew are the nintendo forum mafia.

I agree with the predictions. You have three options.

PS3 which has no catalogue, a myriad of issues and has substandard and unbalanced hardware, most of the money involved has gone into the blueray drive.

Nintendo wii - usual array of nintendo cute n cuddly games which will sell in droves, has a pretty unique controller but somewhat underpowered for a "next generation console".

Xbox 360 - most powerful (Specially the ATI powered graphics solution), and the only real true "next generation console".

Ill pm zardon or craig to edit the title to reflect a victory for nintendo. then im sure it will just perfect

SFOSOK · Nov 18, 2006, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brutusmaximus

Yes, and we also know that you, bobbytomorrow, and yahitsandrew are the nintendo forum mafia.

I agree with the predictions. You have three options.

PS3 which has no catalogue, a myriad of issues and has substandard and unbalanced hardware, most of the money involved has gone into the blueray drive.

Nintendo wii - usual array of nintendo cute n cuddly games which will sell in droves, has a pretty unique controller but somewhat underpowered for a "next generation console".

Xbox 360 - most powerful (Specially the ATI powered graphics solution), and the only real true "next generation console".

Ill pm zardon or craig to edit the title to reflect a victory for nintendo. then im sure it will just perfect

The_Neon_Cowboy · Nov 18, 2006, 09:59 PM

well Xbox 360 , and they HD-DVD addon... is quite formatable.. to what blu ray?
wich is TOOO expensive to take off. So thats quashed, and the fact the Xbox360
looks beter on paper, is avilable in bulk! has tons of games and accessories...

we have 12 xbox 360, and by contrast 8 of the new Wii systems, and only 2 ps3
with no expectations of ANYMORE before after cristmas.

this holdy season Xbox 360 will be the big bread winer

Brutality · Nov 18, 2006, 10:41 PM

To be honest, as long as there are 3 different consoles on the market, there are also 3 different types of opinions on who wins the war. That's always been so..

Zoolook · Nov 18, 2006, 11:05 PM

I don't see why so many are hung up over a slight price difference, when calculating the TOC of a console the initial purchase price means next to nothing with every game costing $50-$60, an initial difference of $100 < 2 games. The lifetime of a console is atleast 5 years and if you look back the ps3 isn't even on the top five list of most expensive consoles with the 3DO and Neo-Geo topping I think inflationadjusted ofcourse.

TheBlackCat · Nov 18, 2006, 11:37 PM

I never said that the X360 isn't going to win. The problem is with the numbers. There is no way they could possibly know things that far in the future with that sort of precision. If it had been the Wii they predicted to win I would have said the same thing. And predictions I have heard of Wii taking Japan are just as unreliable to me as this is.

I think Scott Adams said it best,

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Adams

There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as "nutty methods." Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as "a complete waste of time."

Vikingod · Nov 19, 2006, 12:40 AM

Guys, lets not have this thread go the way the other PS3 threads have gone.

Merrill Lynch is one of the worlds leading financial market research firms. Their opinion is based on more than the difference in price and the hooplah around the launch. When the numbers are run, it appears the XBOX will have more of the US market than Sony, and will make some pretty substantial gains the the European market, no small feat. I will look for the actual report this evening and maybe be able to explain the numbers and the reason behind them.

edit: while I do tend to agree with Adams in a literal sense, models and spreads, when interpreted correctly, do give insight to the future.

Nov 17, 2006, 10:07 PM	#1
Vikingod Int'l Fish Liaison Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: By the light of lamp I sit and type... Posts: 16,187 Rep Power: 109 System Specs	Xbox 360 To Be Next Gen Winner Says Merrill Lynch Source: DailyTech __________ Although most analysts have said that the PlayStation 3 would maintain Sony's lead in the console market in the coming years, an analyst for Merrill Lynch is bucking the trend and is giving a nod to the Xbox 360. Sony has held the lead in the console wars with the original PlayStation and PlayStation 2, so what would prevent the PlayStation 3 from carrying the crown this go around? There is no doubt that the PlayStation 3 will face formidable competition from its cheaper Xbox 360 and Wii rivals, but Merrill Lynch's Yoshiyuki Kinoshita says that it goes much further than a low price tag. "The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world's biggest market," said Kinoshita. __________________ *How You Can Help DriverHeaven By Using Digg*

Nov 18, 2006, 06:52 PM	#2
TheBlackCat DriverHeaven Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Searching for the Candle in the Dark Posts: 567 Rep Power: 0	Oh come on. I was going to let this one slide because everybody already knows my position on these sorts of predictions. But the problem this time isn't specifically about predicting console sales. Anybody claiming to be able to predict anything to the single percentage point 4 years in the future is obviously full of it. "We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 (March 2011) of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent" There is no way they can possibly have that sort of precision. That is the problem with business and political figures like this. They give you the numbers, but very seldom tell you the range of error. Or if the error range is mentioned it is a footnote at the very end of the article. It makes the data absolutely useless, you need to know the degree of uncertainty with something to know how much you can trust the data. __________________ [color=#000000]There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible and wrong.[/color] -H. L. Mencken Last edited by TheBlackCat; Nov 18, 2006 at 06:59 PM.

Nov 18, 2006, 09:59 PM	#5
The_Neon_Cowboy HardwareHeaven Extreme Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: U.S.A. Posts: 16,009 Rep Power: 90 System Specs	well Xbox 360 , and they HD-DVD addon... is quite formatable.. to what blu ray? wich is TOOO expensive to take off. So thats quashed, and the fact the Xbox360 looks beter on paper, is avilable in bulk! has tons of games and accessories... we have 12 xbox 360, and by contrast 8 of the new Wii systems, and only 2 ps3 with no expectations of ANYMORE before after cristmas. this holdy season Xbox 360 will be the big bread winer __________________

Nov 19, 2006, 12:40 AM	Thread Starter #9
Vikingod Int'l Fish Liaison Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: By the light of lamp I sit and type... Posts: 16,187 Rep Power: 109 System Specs	Guys, lets not have this thread go the way the other PS3 threads have gone. Merrill Lynch is one of the worlds leading financial market research firms. Their opinion is based on more than the difference in price and the hooplah around the launch. When the numbers are run, it appears the XBOX will have more of the US market than Sony, and will make some pretty substantial gains the the European market, no small feat. I will look for the actual report this evening and maybe be able to explain the numbers and the reason behind them. edit: while I do tend to agree with Adams in a literal sense, models and spreads, when interpreted correctly, do give insight to the future. __________________ *How You Can Help DriverHeaven By Using Digg*

Nov 18, 2006, 10:41 PM	#6
Brutality DriverHeaven Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Estonia Posts: 887 Rep Power: 39	To be honest, as long as there are 3 different consoles on the market, there are also 3 different types of opinions on who wins the war. That's always been so..

Nov 18, 2006, 11:05 PM	#7
Zoolook DriverHeaven Newbie Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Sweden Posts: 9 Rep Power: 0	I don't see why so many are hung up over a slight price difference, when calculating the TOC of a console the initial purchase price means next to nothing with every game costing $50-$60, an initial difference of $100 < 2 games. The lifetime of a console is atleast 5 years and if you look back the ps3 isn't even on the top five list of most expensive consoles with the 3DO and Neo-Geo topping I think inflationadjusted ofcourse.