Entering a dark age of innovation

Iria · Jul 3, 2005, 04:39 AM

SURFING the web and making free internet phone calls on your Wi-Fi laptop, listening to your iPod on the way home, it often seems that, technologically speaking, we are enjoying a golden age. Human inventiveness is so finely honed, and the globalised technology industries so productive, that there appears to be an invention to cater for every modern whim.

But according to a new analysis, this view couldn't be more wrong: far from being in technological nirvana, we are fast approaching a new dark age. That, at least, is the conclusion of Jonathan Huebner, a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center in China Lake, California. He says the rate of technological innovation reached a peak a century ago and has been declining ever since. And like the lookout on the Titanic who spotted the fateful iceberg, Huebner sees the end of innovation looming dead ahead. His study will be published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

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Read More / Source: New Scientist

nitrousoxide52 · Jul 3, 2005, 04:52 AM

What a pessimist, if anything we are in the inbetween age now, and will soon be entering a golden age. Our tech is quickly advancing, so that guy's an idiot!

CDsDontBurn · Jul 3, 2005, 05:21 AM

Pessimist, yes; but the way I understand from the reading, is that the ratio of critical innovations to global population is declining. He never said in the article that technology will ever decline, but continue to rise.

Saint_K · Jul 3, 2005, 12:19 PM

the more "easy" things have been invented yes. Nowadays it takes loads more time to come with such a breaktrue, as it takes a hell of allota time to invent something new with todays technolicigs.

IvanV · Jul 3, 2005, 12:20 PM

He didn't say anything new. And it's not only in science, but also music, art... But, at least as far as science is concerned, we shouldn't be too worried: after every era of great discoveries, comes an era of elaboration and implementation of those discoveries, which is what we are doing right now.

Sandok · Jul 3, 2005, 12:22 PM

Bah if genetic reasearch gets the go ahead and stops being blocked by the pansy fools of today, then we'd see LOTS of technological advances in biotech but since today people are worried about "moral beliefs", well the newer tech ain't comign fast. We always have to break rules to go forward and these days, breaking those rules is impossible

Rox271 · Jul 3, 2005, 12:56 PM

I do completely agree with EvanV. I think that for the last 50 years, we only had new raw material that made it possible to implement all the things that were discovered, in theory, a century ago. The required raw material comes from petrol of course... As a result, human kind only wanted to make money, business and that is about it. As a result scientists are now starving and there is very little money invested in research. Cos searching for new things is too slow a process for making money. Another result is that we will soon lack petrol and have no alternative.
So it is not only a dark age for science but a big come back to middle age for human kind.

Stop It · Jul 3, 2005, 03:07 PM

Its easy to be short sighted like this Jonathan Huebner, innovation is difficult, time consuming, and more crucially, impossible to predict.

Who, in the years before electricity, would have imagined its effects on society, let alone how to actually discover it, we are always that one step away from ground breaking discovery, whether by accident or intention, and most of the times it comes out of nowhere. We might well be entering a phase of evolution instead of innovation, but thats no bad thing either, it means we can master what we have, then go forward from there, a "dark age" is a very pessimistic view of things.

Matth · Jul 3, 2005, 05:46 PM

I'd say the dark age could be on the way - LITERALLY!

An energy crisis, as new oil and gas finds fail to meet current fields being worked out, burning fossil fuels frowned on due to CO2 emmissions and other pollution, nuclear due to even greater pollution risks.

There is a question also, of "what's left to invent?" - there must be some technological improvements to existing things, maybe some new ones, and maybe the odd success with things that were "50 years away", 50 years ago.

CDsDontBurn · Jul 3, 2005, 06:37 PM

there are plenty of things left out to invent, we just need to have them invented

. or if not invent, improve on what is out there right now. one place where i can see a large improvment upon mankind is space travel. seeing this as space is pretty much infinite (sp?).

Jul 3, 2005, 04:39 AM	#1
Iria DriverHeaven Extreme Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 7,275 Rep Power: 89	Entering a dark age of innovation SURFING the web and making free internet phone calls on your Wi-Fi laptop, listening to your iPod on the way home, it often seems that, technologically speaking, we are enjoying a golden age. Human inventiveness is so finely honed, and the globalised technology industries so productive, that there appears to be an invention to cater for every modern whim. But according to a new analysis, this view couldn't be more wrong: far from being in technological nirvana, we are fast approaching a new dark age. That, at least, is the conclusion of Jonathan Huebner, a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center in China Lake, California. He says the rate of technological innovation reached a peak a century ago and has been declining ever since. And like the lookout on the Titanic who spotted the fateful iceberg, Huebner sees the end of innovation looming dead ahead. His study will be published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. __________ Read More / Source: New Scientist

Jul 3, 2005, 04:52 AM	#2
nitrousoxide52 Driverheaven.com err .net Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,719 Rep Power: 0	What a pessimist, if anything we are in the inbetween age now, and will soon be entering a golden age. Our tech is quickly advancing, so that guy's an idiot! __________________ AMD Athlon64 X2 3800+ XFX Geforce 7800GT ABIT AN8-SLI BFG Tech 650w

Jul 3, 2005, 05:21 AM	#3
CDsDontBurn Lurking DriverHeaven Join Date: May 2003 Location: Southern California Posts: 22,802 Rep Power: 235 System Specs	Pessimist, yes; but the way I understand from the reading, is that the ratio of critical innovations to global population is declining. He never said in the article that technology will ever decline, but continue to rise. __________________ Her First Day \| A year later

Jul 3, 2005, 12:20 PM	#5
IvanV HH Assassin Guild Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 5,919 Rep Power: 336 System Specs	He didn't say anything new. And it's not only in science, but also music, art... But, at least as far as science is concerned, we shouldn't be too worried: after every era of great discoveries, comes an era of elaboration and implementation of those discoveries, which is what we are doing right now. __________________ If anyone has Portal 2 and hasn't played the co-op and wants to do me a favour, let me know (PM me or whatever). Last edited by IvanV; Jul 3, 2005 at 01:00 PM.

Jul 3, 2005, 03:07 PM	#8
Stop It HHs' Resident Kitty Lover Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Biggleswade, UK Posts: 1,432 Rep Power: 78 System Specs	Its easy to be short sighted like this Jonathan Huebner, innovation is difficult, time consuming, and more crucially, impossible to predict. Who, in the years before electricity, would have imagined its effects on society, let alone how to actually discover it, we are always that one step away from ground breaking discovery, whether by accident or intention, and most of the times it comes out of nowhere. We might well be entering a phase of evolution instead of innovation, but thats no bad thing either, it means we can master what we have, then go forward from there, a "dark age" is a very pessimistic view of things. __________________ Sig Courtesy of Mousey

Jul 3, 2005, 12:19 PM	#4
Saint_K InSaNe Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Den haag, netherlands Posts: 836 Rep Power: 0	the more "easy" things have been invented yes. Nowadays it takes loads more time to come with such a breaktrue, as it takes a hell of allota time to invent something new with todays technolicigs.

Jul 3, 2005, 12:22 PM	#6
Sandok DriverHeaven Extreme Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 9,472 Rep Power: 0	Bah if genetic reasearch gets the go ahead and stops being blocked by the pansy fools of today, then we'd see LOTS of technological advances in biotech but since today people are worried about "moral beliefs", well the newer tech ain't comign fast. We always have to break rules to go forward and these days, breaking those rules is impossible

Jul 3, 2005, 12:56 PM	#7
Rox271 DriverHeaven Addict Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Here Posts: 251 Rep Power: 0	I do completely agree with EvanV. I think that for the last 50 years, we only had new raw material that made it possible to implement all the things that were discovered, in theory, a century ago. The required raw material comes from petrol of course... As a result, human kind only wanted to make money, business and that is about it. As a result scientists are now starving and there is very little money invested in research. Cos searching for new things is too slow a process for making money. Another result is that we will soon lack petrol and have no alternative. So it is not only a dark age for science but a big come back to middle age for human kind.

Jul 3, 2005, 05:46 PM	#9
Matth Flash Banner Hater Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: UK Posts: 3,426 Rep Power: 93 System Specs	I'd say the dark age could be on the way - LITERALLY! An energy crisis, as new oil and gas finds fail to meet current fields being worked out, burning fossil fuels frowned on due to CO2 emmissions and other pollution, nuclear due to even greater pollution risks. There is a question also, of "what's left to invent?" - there must be some technological improvements to existing things, maybe some new ones, and maybe the odd success with things that were "50 years away", 50 years ago.

Jul 3, 2005, 06:37 PM	#10
CDsDontBurn Lurking DriverHeaven Join Date: May 2003 Location: Southern California Posts: 22,802 Rep Power: 235 System Specs	there are plenty of things left out to invent, we just need to have them invented . or if not invent, improve on what is out there right now. one place where i can see a large improvment upon mankind is space travel. seeing this as space is pretty much infinite (sp?). __________________ Her First Day \| A year later