Is the Internet about to implode?

Discussion in 'News Discussion' started by HardwareHeaven, Oct 14, 2009.

  1. HardwareHeaven

    HardwareHeaven Administrator Staff Member

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    The net is now such an integral part of everyones daily life that it seems hard to imagine a time before it even existed. I am unfortunately old enough to clearly remember that time, however there are many theories that exponential growth may actually cause serious issues for us netlovers.

    Industry expert and Nemertes President Johna Til Johnson recently wrote a very interesting article on Computerworld called "The Internet Sky really is falling" which details the issues of access capacity.

    Time for the really bad news. Access capacity shortage isn't the only -- or even the worst -- problem facing the 'Net. IP itself is nearing end-of-life, with no ready alternative. Pretty much everyone's aware that we're running out of IPv4 addresses at an alarming rate, and despite more than a decade of massive promotion, IPv6 deployments are a tiny fraction of what they would have to be to meet the gap. A few people are also aware that due in part to increased multihoming, routing table sizes are increasing dramatically, to the point where they'll exceed Moore's Law's ability to keep up. (IPv6 actually makes this problem worse, although how much so is a matter for debate).

    In another recent article Johna discussed 'peering'.

    Guess what? When peering goes away, so does the Internet -- because you're no longer able to connect to anywhere from anywhere. A site on one network won't be visible to users on other networks, unless the site owner is rich enough to buy connections to multiple networks.

    Is the end nigh? Shall we all end up reading newspapers and magazines for our daily fixes? Arstechnica writer Nate Anderson made some great points in his article published today

    The Internet's core has plenty of bandwidth, so traffic growth really poses the biggest problem for access lines. Fortunately, big gains in capacity in the last mile aren't "excruciatingly expensive." While Johnson's single example is the most expensive last-mile buildout in the US (Verizon's transition from copper lines to fiber optics), cable and DSL operators can upgrade their lines for bargain basement prices by adopting DOCSIS 3.0 (cable) or by running fiber deeper into the network (as with AT&T's U-verse, which already offers 18Mbps connections over copper wire compared to 6Mbps on the rest of its network).

    Besides, data increasingly fails to pass through the big Tier 1 providers anyway. New research out today from Arbor Networks and the University of Michigan shows that "over the last five years, Internet traffic has migrated away from the traditional Internet core of 10 to 12 Tier-1 international transit providers. Today, the majority of Internet traffic by volume flows directly between large content providers, datacenter/CDNs and consumer networks. Consequently, most Tier-1 networks have evolved their business models away from IP wholesale transit to focus on broader cloud/enterprise services, content hosting and VPNs."


    It is a very interesting topic of debate, because many people using the net today, really don't stop and actually think about how this big beautiful "WWW" really works.

    Allan Campbell: Heaven Media
     
  2. Judas

    Judas Obvious Closet Brony Pony

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    I think the way for the system to implode would to be the continuation of dereguarded upkeep of the system.

    And there have been a rediculious number of suggestions made over the years as well as documented methods in which to make the move to a full blown FORCED ipv6 system with more organised and better bandwidth capabilities, however at the expense of the people (subscription based internet..... what a joke)

    There is plenty of technological advances being made that is constantly increasing the throughput of fiber connection to unfathomable values and the price of these technologies are coming down in cost as well. I think it's safe to say that moving away from copper complete would be a good move as the degradation of fiber is far more favorable over copper connections anyways.

    Direct Fiber the entire way into every home and business would be ideal.....
     
  3. Mousey

    Mousey HH's Official Rodent

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    The internet's core? There's a core? I thought it was a web, like the name; The Web. Which meant no absolute central core... hmmm. IPV6 needs to be forced in, but other than that i don't think it's going to implode suddenly. It'll be like a dying HDD, We'll see several warning signs long before
     
  4. IvanV

    IvanV HH Assassin Guild Member

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    I don't think it's even close to dying. Even if IPv4 protocol still accounts for most of the traffic, IPv6 connectivity is already widely available. The only real threat is whether legal/political and economic basis of it's operation will be changed so that IS and content providers could make more money and a greater control over the available informations could be maintained.

    @Mousey: He meant the top level providers and connections between them.
     
  5. Trusteft

    Trusteft HH's Asteroids' Dominator

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    It's all Finland's fault.
     
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  6. MitchRapp

    MitchRapp a.k.a. pepiman

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    Forced ipv6 should be the way to go ... but what about cleaning up one's mess (that is, with websites that should no longer exist since they are abandoned and all..)
    basically a waste of life.
     
  7. CitySlicker

    CitySlicker Banned

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    I think we are going to develop several Internets (into separate subnets) as the all-in-one-pot concept is not going to hold it for much longer.

    However, the Internet is here to stay...
     
  8. IvanV

    IvanV HH Assassin Guild Member

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    You mean like abandoned domain names? I'm not sure what happens to them, but I'm also not sure that there are that many of them.

    @CitySlicker: Why? IPv6 has some nice QoS capabilities (actually, some of that stuff is possible even with IPv6) and Internet became what it is through merging of different independent networks, that was the whole idea.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2009
  9. RE III - Frankie

    RE III - Frankie Banned

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    For an update on the "small court" of net accessibility someone should read my thread posted in off topic named ADSL slow speedup. I guess you "could" say that it is only a "sign" of what is only inevitably to come. On a lighter note, Jupiter faces implosion over the next 27 years on it's way to becoming the second brightest star in our local solar system, it is expected to happen by 2036.

    http://www.driverheaven.net/off-topic-forum/190908-adsl-slow-speedup.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2009
  10. Teme

    Teme Super Moderator

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    why?
     
  11. IvanV

    IvanV HH Assassin Guild Member

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    I think that it's just a joke because of broadband access becoming a legal right in your country. Though if you increase the speeds like you plan to, I'm not sure what will happen to the net when each of the 5,5 million of you starts siphoning data down their personal 100mbps connection (South Park's "Over logging" springs to mind :lol:).
     
  12. Trusteft

    Trusteft HH's Asteroids' Dominator

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    That's it.
     
  13. Teme

    Teme Super Moderator

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    heh... we do have the same amount of house holds that will use the IP's but perhaps it's true since we got the IP's in use in our Nokia phones when we are on the go ;)
     

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