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Monday | August 2, 2021
The impact of mining on the market: a lot… at first sight

The impact of mining on the market: a lot… at first sight

Our doubts about the real impact of mining on the availability crisis and the price increases that are hitting the market have been sufficiently mentioned here. On several occasions we have weighed up the recurrent remarks of professionals who have attributed to miners all the ills of the earth since the creation.. However, if the JPR (John Peddie Research) study is anything to go by, the impact of mining on the GPU market would be considerable in the first quarter of 2021.

25% of cards shipped in Q1 2021 are used to mine crypto

According to JPR analysts, at least 700,000 cards that are normally intended for gaming ended up in the hands of miners between January and March this year. Obviously, these numbers will comfort quite a few people, as they allow for an easy “it’s not our fault” explanation. It is indisputable that GPU crypto mining has a major impact on the increase in the price of graphics cards, but for us it is not the only reason… Worse, we are not far from thinking that it is not the main reason.

JPR’s analysis method “questionable” in our opinion

It’s true that we don’t like easy explanations or ideal culprits. Far from bringing us comfort, these situations trigger a certain suspicion. So we will remain cautious at a time when a person who is surprised by the weather is quickly classified as a “conspiracy theorist”, but all the same, let’s try to read between the lines. To arrive at these figures, the John Peddie Research firm bases itself on the rate of attachment of cards to PCs. In short, the attachment rate is simply the fact of buying a card in a PC or with elements of a system. Obviously, there are people who traditionally do not buy a “mounted” PC, so JPR modulates his observation based on the historical hindsight of his analyses. JPR’s method is to count the cards sold “attached” to a PC, weight the number with a percentage that corresponds to the history of those who buy a card for an upgrade or to build a card for themselves… And the rest would be miners. So, let’s be objective, JPR admits (quietly) that his methodology is not infallible. This is mainly due to the “history” that allows to determine a ratio between “attached” cards and “naturally” purchased cards for an upgrade or others. The shift of the market towards e-commerce, the explosion of robots / scalpers, the impact of the RTX 30 generation (justifying an upgrade for some when the RTX 20 triggered a wait-and-see attitude) or even containment… In short, a multitude of “variables” that the study ignores. We maintain that the moment of truth for us will be sometime this summer. The moment when the LHR chips will be distributed en masse to manufacturers. That’s when we’ll see the real impact of the miners on the market.

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OCC_FrTeam

Edited by Calliers

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